The
following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer
Island Gazette.
"On
Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of
transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer
months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the
number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from
50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the
number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual
reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the
neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced
similar limits on moped rentals."
Write
a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be
answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to
have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to
these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The
argument states that the number of mopeds rented during summer in
Balmer Island should be reduced to half the current count to reduce
the number of accidents in the Island and achieve a target of 50
percent annual reduction in moped accidents. This conclusion is made
by the author by presenting an analogy between the moped accidents in
Balmer Island and the same in Seavile Island. However the argument
does not provide valid reasons and analogy to bolster it’s points
and hence is not completely cogent and convincing to follow the
suggestions by the author.
Firstly
the two Islands under consideration may vary in multiple aspects like
population, land area, kind of people and types of policies followed.
Hence comparing the two does not give us valid grounds to support the
author’s argument. The number of people in Balmer Island may be
more than the number in Seavile and hence the policies followed by
the government to check the moped accidents in Balmer island need to
be different in their approach. Also, as stated above, the number of
people, in Balmer Island, increase to 100,000 during summer months
which implies that the new population might not be aware of the
policy changes or the speed limits and rental details of the mopeds
rented. Nothing similar is mentioned regarding the population
increase in the Islands of Seavile, which implies that the population
might not even change during the summer months and the present
population renting the mopeds are well aware of the policies followed
and might also be safe drivers, hence preventing accidents.
Secondly,
the author presents statistical data regarding the percent of
reduction in the mopeds rented. However the author neglects the fact
that the number of mopeds rented in the Balmer Island and the island
of Seaville are not the same. Therefore keeping the same percentage
change in the new policy suggested by the author, might not help the
Balmer island policies in the way as it would for the island of
Seaville. This change might also affect the profit of the rental
companies and in turn, affect the summer tourism revenue for the
government in Balmer Island. The
author, should, instead, consider the current mopeds being rented in
the Island and then consider the percent deduction as per the rental
policies and the profit and revenue kept under consideration. This
would solve both purposes, of reducing the accidents as well as
maintaining the revenue. The government can also come up with
policies benefiting both, the pedestrians as well as the moped
drivers. Therefore limiting the rentals as well as applying special
policies for pedestrians would be more beneficial and might reduce
the accidents by more than 50 percent. Also, the 50 percent reduction
in the accident in mopeds was recorded last year in Seaville and
there are no records mentioned for accident percentage in the current
year. Therefore, there is no affirmation to the policy in the current
year and this proves the author’s point to be noncohesive. The
author should consider the current statistics for the same for a
stronger point.
Therefore,
the above points should have been considered by the author to make
his argument cohesive and convincing. However,
the argument is flawed and could be strengthened if the author
considered
the correct statistics and other factors mentioned above to bolster
his argument. Without this information, the argument remains
unsubstantiated and open to debate.